Dynamic Modeling for Jail Population & Program Capacity

Simply put, dynamic modeling allows agencies to understand the impact of new correctional policy and practice on a problem before investing in implementation. With the severe competition for funding, your agency requires efficient and cost effective solutions, period.

Our Dynamic Modeling tool projects a set of “what if” changes being considered by the agency. The value? Immediate feedback on tough issues such as jail crowding, case load size and programming needs.

Problems, issues and challenges administrators and planners face in local criminal justice systems are increasingly difficult to understand and resolve using traditional tools, frameworks and techniques. With the severe competition for tax dollars, today’s demands from the public and local government require efficiency, cost effectiveness and avoidance of waste – we must do more with less. We must also, when possible, be able to understand and quantify the impact of new or modified correctional policy and practice on a problem before funding and implementation that may not have the desired outcome.

The use of equivant's Dynamic Modeling can add value to addressing these challenges by being able to reliably project the dynamics associated with a set of “what if” initiatives (policy or procedural changes) through immediate modeling feedback of the proposed change(s) on the problem e.g. jail crowding, case load size, etc.

equivant's Jail Population Modeling

We have developed a modeling tool to project the impact of various jail population management initiatives on its future population. The software allows for modeling any set of inmate sub-populations using their admission rates, average daily population (ADP) and average length of stay (ALOS) data. “What if” scenarios changing future admissions, ADP and/or ALOS on any of these sub-populations can be modeled for the potential impact on the institutions future ADP. This is particularly useful in projecting the impact on ADP of new legislation, new policy initiatives that may affect admission rates or ALOS, reentry/early release policy changes, etc.

equivant's Program Capacity Modeling

A second Model developed is a tool that allows for the forecasting of how much program capacity will be required to treat a prison or jail’s targeted inmate populations (system wide or by each facility) in each assessed treatment need domain (e.g. substance abuse, anger management, cognitive behavioral, etc.). The model uses data generated by the Northpointe Suite Risk/Needs Assessment software to determine an inmate’s risk level and severity of need using the “Program Priority Matrix”.

The modeling process starts by calculating the program capacity needs if just the highest risk/need priority group were targeted for enrollment - then add the second priority group, the third group etc., showing how much program capacity will be needed to serve each diminishing priority group. This will inform the decision makers as to what percent of the targeted population in each need domain will have an opportunity to participate and complete a corresponding program prior to release and how much additional capacity may be needed to fully program the desired population.

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